Boeing wants to return its monthly 737 MAX production rate to 38 aircraft by the end of this year, but rating agencies expect more delays.
At the end of last year, Boeing announced that its 737 production was around 38 aircraft per month. However, its actual rate varied substantially throughout the year, and its output near the end of 2023 was actually lower than that.
But Boeing believed that it had stabilized its 737 MAX production to that level as 2024 started and aimed to accelerate past it by this summer. Obviously, the blowout of a door plug of a 737 MAX-9 on January 6th torpedoed these plans.
Even so, Boeing’s latest information is that it will reach a production rate of 38 737 MAX narrowbodies by the end of the year. The manufacturer would need FAA permission to go higher than this number. But two rating agencies are now disputing this projection.
Moody’s and S&P don’t expect Boeing’s 737 MAX output to reach 38 aircraft before the middle of 2025. Moody’s believes that Boeing’s production rate by the end of 2024 will be just 32 aircraft. That’s still considerably higher than Boeing’s July 2024 production numbers of 25 737s.
737 MAX Production, Unions and Spirit AeroSystems
Boeing spent much of the first half of the year making only around 20 737s per month, its lowest number being just 8 aircraft. Low production numbers have been frustrating for many Boeing customers, who had to make do with a smaller 737 MAX fleet in the busy summer period, with little notice from Boeing.
One reason why the two credit rating agencies believe that 737 MAX production could remain low is Boeing’s current negotiations with IAM 751. The machinists’ union wants to reverse the painful concessions it had to make a decade ago when Boeing was in a much stronger negotiating position.
IAM 751 members have already voted in favor of a strike if Boeing refuses to agree to its terms. A strike would severely hamper 737 MAX production, at a time when Boeing can ill-afford it. The new contract is due to be signed in September.
For much of 2024, Boeing focused on production improvements at Spirit AeroSystems to help stabilize 737 deliveries. Spirit makes the fuselage of the 737 family in Wichita and will become part of Boeing by next year.
In response to these estimates, Boeing reiterated that it is still aiming to hit its target production rate of 38 737s before the end of 2024.
